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Is global violence on the increase? Don't be fooled by what you see on TV
by Graeme J. Davidson

Originally appeared in The Dominion Post Religion and Ethics column 30 Sept 2006

....The Californian worshippers said Amen to the prayers for peace. Heads nodded when the pastor preached about seeking a non-violent solution to the conflict with Libya. Yet at coffee after church, many boasted to me of how America had kicked butt. It was 1986 and in an effort to stop Libyan-sponsored terrorism, US warplanes had just bombed targets in Libya, killing 37 civilians.
....Obviously, for some, subduing enemies by force is the answer to prayers for peace. It’s what the devout President Bush has tried to do in the American-lead war on terror. Yet, according to a recent report by 16 US spy agencies, the US involvement in Iraq has fuelled Islamic radicalism.
....Despite White House claims that “America and its allies are safer”, the report says the terrorist threat has grown since September 11 – adding to international feelings of insecurity.
....Switch on the TV news and you’re assailed with violence and misery caused by conflict and terror. It’s a theme echoed by politicians and in magazines, books, Hollywood dramas, video games – and prayers for peace. We’re convinced there’s a growing pandemic of violence making the world more dangerous than ever. And our fears are making us willing to trade civil rights for security.
....That’s the perception. But has global violence actually increased?
....In his book, War Before Civilisation, Lawrence H Keeley argues there was a far greater chance of dying by the sword in the days of tribal warfare than there is of dying in a conflict today. According to Keeley, our ancestors faced the “cumulative effects of frequent but low-casualty battles, the unmitigated deadliness and very high frequency of raids, the catastrophic mortalities inflicted in general massacres, the customary killing of all adult males and the often atrocious treatment of women and children”.
....He suggests that if we still behaved like this, war deaths in the twentieth century would have soared to over two billion.
....We would expect one in 200 of our population to die in battle every year. Worldwide, that’s about 32.5 million war fatalities a year.
....If we go back fifty years to 1956, there were 11 major conflicts: the Algerian, Malay, and Arab-Israeli wars; the Sudanese, Burmese, Laotian and Vietnam Civil wars; the Cuban revolution; the Hungarian and Argentinean revolts and the Mau Mau uprising in Kenya.
....Tragically, these clashes produced many more causalities than today’s conflicts.
....Here’s the good news. According to the Human Security Report 2005, deaths from conflicts plummeted from an average of 38,000 deaths per conflict in 1950 to 600 in 2002. Armed conflicts and violent coups declined by 40 percent. Genocides and political killings plunged 80 percent.
....Despite violence in Iraq and the threat of weapons of mass destruction, the numbers of international crises, arms sales, troop numbers, and refugees from conflicts have also fallen dramatically.
....And in spite of the horrific TV images and the personal tragedy, international terrorism kills small numbers compared to those slaughtered in wars.
....Reasons for the decrease in global violence are the end of colonial wars and the cessation of the super powers funding insurgents during the Cold War. There’s been an increase in democracy and economic help to develop conflict-prone areas, as well as preventive diplomacy, assistance from non-government agencies and the deployment of peacemakers and peacekeepers.
....In other words, peace doesn’t mean appeasement or believing we are powerless to change warrior mindsets. It comes from working hard to eliminate the causes of violence.
....To this end, efforts are now underway to create a New Zealand Peace and Conflict Studies Centre involving universities, government and peace groups.
....The proposed centre would research the causes of conflict, conflict resolution and peace-building, as well as providing degree courses and training.
....So far, three universities, including Victoria University, have shown interest in hosting the centre.
Nevertheless, the danger of having a peace and conflict centre at a university is that the project will be highjacked by ivory tower academics keen to create erudite career-enhancing information for other academics.
....According to The Human Security Report 2005, a major reason for the drop in global violence is a shift in our attitudes. Most of us no longer think war is noble or that peace happens by sending the military to kick butt.
....Jesus’ edict “Blessed are the peacemakers” is something we’re taking to heart and we Kiwis can be rightfully proud of our contribution to international peace efforts.

Copyright ©2005
Graeme Davidson

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